What do macroinvertebrate indices measure? Stressor-specific stream macroinvertebrate indices can be confounded by other stressors.

Monitoring programmes worldwide use biota to assess the "health" of water bodies. Indices based on biota are used to describe the change in status of sites over time, to identify progress against management targets and to diagnose the causes of biological degradation. A variety of numerical stressor-specific biotic indices have been developed based on the response of biota to differences in stressors among sites. Yet, it is not clear how variation in pressures within sites, over what time period, and in what combination has the greatest impact on different biotic groups. An understanding of how temporal variation in pressures influences biological assessment indices would assist in setting achievable targets and help focus catchment-scale mitigation strategies to ensure that they deliver the desired improvements in biological condition.Hydrochemical data provided by a network of high-frequency (15 or 30 min) automated monitoring stations over 3 years were matched to replicated biological data to understand the influence of spatio-temporal variation in pollution pressures on biological indices. Hydrochemical data were summarised in various ways to reflect central tendency, peaks, troughs and variation over 1-90 days before the collection of each biological sample. An objective model selection procedure was used to determine which hydrochemical determinand, and over what time period, best explained variation in the biological indices.Stressor-specific indices derived from macroinvertebrates which purportedly assess stress from low flows, excess fine sediment, nutrient enrichment, pesticides and organic pollution were significantly inter-correlated and reflected periods of low oxygen concentration, even though only one index (ASPTWHPT, average score per taxon) was designed for this purpose. Changes in community composition resulting from one stressor frequently lead to confounding effects on stressor-specific indices.Variation in ASPTWHPT was best described by dissolved oxygen calculated as Q5 over 10 days, suggesting that low oxygen events had most influence over this period. Longer-term effects were apparent, but were masked by recovery. Macroinvertebrate abundance was best described by Q95 of stream velocity over 60 days, suggesting a slower recovery in numbers than in the community trait reflected by ASPTWHPT.Although use of ASPTWHPT was supported, we recommend that additional independent evidence should be used to corroborate any conclusions regarding the causes of degradation drawn from the other stressor-specific indices. The use of such stressor-specific indices alone risks the mistargeting of management strategies if the putative stressor-index approach is taken to be more reliable than the results herein suggest.

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain.

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain's power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29-66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

BVLOS UAS Operations in Highly-Turbulent Volcanic Plumes.

Long-range, high-altitude Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) operations now enable in-situ measurements of volcanic gas chemistry at globally-significant active volcanoes. However, the extreme environments encountered within volcanic plumes present significant challenges for both air frame development and in-flight control. As part of a multi-disciplinary field deployment in May 2019, we flew fixed wing UAS Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) over Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea, to measure real-time gas concentrations within the volcanic plume. By integrating aerial gas measurements with ground- and satellite-based sensors, our aim was to collect data that would constrain the emission rate of environmentally-important volcanic gases, such as carbon dioxide, whilst providing critical insight into the state of the subsurface volcanic system. Here, we present a detailed analysis of three BVLOS flights into the plume of Manam volcano and discuss the challenges involved in operating in highly turbulent volcanic plumes. Specifically, we report a detailed description of the system, including ground and air components, and flight plans. We present logged flight data for two successful flights to evaluate the aircraft performance under the atmospheric conditions experienced during plume traverses. Further, by reconstructing the sequence of events that led to the failure of the third flight, we identify a number of lessons learned and propose appropriate recommendations to reduce risk in future flight operations.

Atmospheric Sampling on Ascension Island Using Multirotor UAVs.

As part of an NERC-funded project investigating the southern methane anomaly, a team drawn from the Universities of Bristol, Birmingham and Royal Holloway flew small unmanned multirotors from Ascension Island for the purposes of atmospheric sampling. The objective of these flights was to collect air samples from below, within and above a persistent atmospheric feature, the Trade Wind Inversion, in order to characterise methane concentrations and their isotopic composition. These parameters allow the methane in the different air masses to be tied to different source locations, which can be further analysed using back trajectory atmospheric computer modelling. This paper describes the campaigns as a whole including the design of the bespoke eight rotor aircraft and the operational requirements that were needed in order to collect targeted multiple air samples up to 2.5 km above the ground level in under 20 min of flight time. Key features of the system described include real-time feedback of temperature and humidity, as well as system health data. This enabled detailed targeting of the air sampling design to be realised and planned during the flight mission on the downward leg, a capability that is invaluable in the presence of uncertainty in the pre-flight meteorological data. Environmental considerations are also outlined together with the flight plans that were created in order to rapidly fly vertical transects of the atmosphere whilst encountering changing wind conditions. Two sampling campaigns were carried out in September 2014 and July 2015 with over one hundred high altitude sampling missions. Lessons learned are given throughout, including those associated with operating in the testing environment encountered on Ascension Island.

A high-resolution global flood hazard model.

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

Spotting East African mammals in open savannah from space.

Knowledge of population dynamics is essential for managing and conserving wildlife. Traditional methods of counting wild animals such as aerial survey or ground counts not only disturb animals, but also can be labour intensive and costly. New, commercially available very high-resolution satellite images offer great potential for accurate estimates of animal abundance over large open areas. However, little research has been conducted in the area of satellite-aided wildlife census, although computer processing speeds and image analysis algorithms have vastly improved. This paper explores the possibility of detecting large animals in the open savannah of Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya from very high-resolution GeoEye-1 satellite images. A hybrid image classification method was employed for this specific purpose by incorporating the advantages of both pixel-based and object-based image classification approaches. This was performed in two steps: firstly, a pixel-based image classification method, i.e., artificial neural network was applied to classify potential targets with similar spectral reflectance at pixel level; and then an object-based image classification method was used to further differentiate animal targets from the surrounding landscapes through the applications of expert knowledge. As a result, the large animals in two pilot study areas were successfully detected with an average count error of 8.2%, omission error of 6.6% and commission error of 13.7%. The results of the study show for the first time that it is feasible to perform automated detection and counting of large wild animals in open savannahs from space, and therefore provide a complementary and alternative approach to the conventional wildlife survey techniques.

Diffuse phosphorus models in the United States and europe: their usages, scales, and uncertainties.

Today there are many well-established computer models that are being used at different spatial and temporal scales to describe water, sediment, and P transport from diffuse sources. In this review, we describe how diffuse P models are commonly being used in the United States and Europe, the challenge presented by different temporal and spatial scales, and the uncertainty in model predictions. In the United States, for water bodies that do not meet water quality standards, a total maximum daily load (TMDL) of the pollutant of concern must be set that will restore water quality and a plan implemented to reduce the pollutant load to meet the TMDL. Models are used to estimate the current maximum daily and annual average load, to estimate the contribution from different nonpoint sources, and to develop scenarios for achieving the TMDL target. In Europe, the EC-Water Framework Directive is the driving force to improve water quality and models are playing a similar role to that in the United States, but the models being used are not the same. European models are more likely to take into account leaching of P and the identification of critical source areas. Scaling up to the watershed scale has led to overparameterized models that cannot be used to test hypotheses regarding nonpoint sources of P or transport processes using the monitoring data that is typically available. There is a need for more parsimonious models and monitoring data that takes advantage of the technological improvements that allow nearly continuous sampling for P and sediment. Tools for measuring model uncertainty must become an integral part of models and be readily available for model users.

Uncertainties in data and models to describe event dynamics of agricultural sediment and phosphorus transfer.

Mathematical models help to quantify agricultural sediment and phosphorus transfers and to simulate mitigation of pollution. This paper develops empirical models of the dominant sediment and phosphorus event dynamics observed at high resolution in a drained and undrained, intensive grassland field-scale lysimeter (1 ha) experiment. The uncertainties in model development and simulation are addressed using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation. A comparison of suspended solids (SS) and total phosphorus (TP) samples with a limited number of manual repeats indicates larger data variability at low flows. Quantitative uncertainty estimates for discharge (Q) are available from another study. Suspended solids-discharge (SS-Q) hysteresis is analyzed for four events and two drained and two undrained fields. Hysteresis loops differ spatially and temporally, and exhaustion is apparent between sequential hydrograph peaks. A coherent empirical model framework for hysteresis, where SS is a function of Q and rate of change of Q, is proposed. This is evaluated taking the Q uncertainty into account, which can contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty of model simulations. The model simulates small hysteresis loops well but fails to simulate exhaustion of SS sources and flushing at the onset of events. Analysis of the TP-SS relationship reveals that most of the variability occurs at low flows, and a power-law relationship can explain the dominant behavior at higher flows, which is consistent across events, fields, and pathways. The need for further field experiments to test hypotheses of sediment mobilization and to quantify data uncertainties is identified.

Spatial variability of soil phosphorus in relation to the topographic index and critical source areas: sampling for assessing risk to water quality.

A measure of soil P status in agricultural soils is generally required for assisting with prediction of potential P loss from agricultural catchments and assessing risk for water quality. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (i) investigating the soil P status, distribution, and variability, both spatially and with soil depth, of two different first-order catchments; and (ii) determining variation in soil P concentration in relation to catchment topography (quantified as the "topographic index") and critical source areas (CSAs). The soil P measurements showed large spatial variability, not only between fields and land uses, but also within individual fields and in part was thought to be strongly influenced by areas where cattle tended to congregate and areas where manure was most commonly spread. Topographic index alone was not related to the distribution of soil P, and does not seem to provide an adequate indicator for CSAs in the study catchments. However, CSAs may be used in conjunction with soil P data for help in determining a more "effective" catchment soil P status. The difficulties in defining CSAs a priori, particularly for modeling and prediction purposes, however, suggest that other more "integrated" measures of catchment soil P status, such as baseflow P concentrations or streambed sediment P concentrations, might be more useful. Since observed soil P distribution is variable and is also difficult to relate to nationally available soil P data, any assessment of soil P status for determining risk of P loss is uncertain and problematic, given other catchment physicochemical characteristics and the sampling strategy employed.